2012 Fantasy Baseball: When is it Time to Panic?

Kevin Youkilis is 0-for-2012

When is it time to panic in a Roto league? A H2H league? Is it after Opening Week? Two weeks into the season? May 1? All-Star Break?

The answer is a bit more simple than you might think. It’s never too early or too late to panic. We all play fantasy baseball for fun and bragging rights and part of playing the game is managing your team as you see fit. So, if you have identified a problem with one of your players then it is time to address it. If one of your players is raking but you don’t think he can keep it up then it is time to see what you can get in a trade.

However, there are times to be patient and give a player time to ‘right the ship’ so to speak.

I’ve been getting add/drop questions since last Thursday so let’s just address some of those questions by taking a look at players who have either under-performed or outperformed expectations in Fantasy Baseball‘s Opening Week.

Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B BOS – The Youker has 12 ABs in 2012 but nothing to show for it except for 5 Ks and a .000 BABIP. It looks ugly so far but for where you drafted him (probably Round 7-8 or later) he still has a chance to return significant value. Since I’m a glass-half-full guy most of the time, I look at the fact that Youk has got the bat on the ball 7 out of 12 times so far, but they just haven’t fallen for hits. It’s virtually impossible to have a season BABIP of .000 so I think I’ll ride this one out until at least mid-May. No one expects Youkilis to play 162 games, but in that potent lineup he should have value when he’s in it.

Matt Weiters C BAL – After 14 ABs and a 4/4 Monday night performance with a HR, Weiters is stroking with a .385 AVG to go with 2 HRs and 3 RBIs. I think the Orioles’ catcher can maintain this type of performance for a couple of reasons. Although a small sample size, he has lowered his K% and raised his BB% so far and has a .300 BABIP – exactly in line with his career numbers which means he’s not just getting some lucky hits in here and there. Now he’s not going to keep up his plus-.500 ISO or his plus-.900 Slugging, but he should post the post-hype breakout numbers that we were all expecting from him in 2012. 30 HRs and 85 RBIs are not out of the question for Weiters.

Carlos Pena 1B TB – Known as a “Three True Outcome” hitter, Pena has been just that in 2012. In his 14 PAs since returning to the Rays, Pena has 2 HRs (including a Grand Slam) and 7 RBIs. He’s sporting a .500 AVG but has 5 Ks already to 2 BBs. His .800 BABIP and plus-1.600 OPS (yes you read that correctly) will come down, but Pena looks to be a reliable power source once again in 2012.

Jhonny Peralta SS DET – Peralta finally put it all together last year and, so far, has picked up in 2012 where he left off in 2011. Peralta has 5 hits in 12 ABs including 2 Doubles, 2 Rs, 3 RBIs, and a BB. Peralta is part of a killer offensive lineup and, since his BB%, K%, and ISO are all in line with his career norms, he should continue to contribute to the Tigers’ offense and your fantasy lineup.

It is impossible for me to provide in-depth analysis for every single player so with that in mind here are a couple of lists – Players to Add or Deal For and Players to Drop or Deal Away. Keep in mind that trading is all about maximizing value. Trading for a guy who is off to a hot start will cost more than trading for a guy who is off to a slow start. The ideal situation would be to make a deal like giving up Chad Billingsley and Austin Jackson for Matt Cain and Dan Uggla. Buy low, sell high.

10 Players to Add or Deal For